DOI
doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.07.017

Summary
The paper analysed and reviewed different quantitative models of “socio-technical energy transition” (STET), with the aim to provide a general way to describe their main characteristics and promote the integration of quantitative modelling and conceptual socio-technical transitions. The paper analyses a wide spectrum of socio-technical transitions framework, from complex adaptive systems to technological innovation systems (TIS). However, it is mainly interested in the most influential models, which are the one covered in the notorious “Dutch approach”. The concepts adopted in this school are:
- Transition management (TM)
- Strategic niche management (SNM)
- Technological innovation systems (TIS)
- Multi-level perspective (MLP)
In describing the various STET models, the publication defines their main three characteristics as:
A. Techno-Economic Detail
B. Explicit Actor Heterogeneity
C. Transition Pathway Dynamics
According to the authors, an “ideally perfect” STET model should incorporate appropriately all 3 characteristics, but it is often found hard to be the case, as the level of in-depth analysis in one side comprise the depth of analysis in another sector. Nonetheless, these models are found to be effective in advising policymakers and able to present sometimes counterintuitive solutions to socio-technical energy transitions. Their ability to explore complex, path dependent, multi-actor systems characterized by deep uncertainty shows a wide arrange of possibilities for their application in the near future.

Relevance for Complex Systems Knowledge
The paper, although without referring to it directly, analyzes methods of complex systems science adopted for the design of models describing transitions in socio-technical regimes. The publication is deeply involved in the field of sustainable development as it provides pros and cons of current models adopted in the design of policies for the promotion of green energy and it is particularly invested in interdisciplinary approaches, as it aims to propose STET models as the “missing element” able to link socio-technical transitions concepts, quantitative models and their practical adoption for the design of future policies.

Point of Strength
It provides a wide review, analyzing 15 different models, based on a wide range of theoretical concepts;
It elaborates an accurate and new way to describe STET models;
It thoroughly describe the extent to which STET models captures the variety of factors covered in socio-technical transitions theory