DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11251-016-9389-6

Summary
The research focuses on the students’ probabilistic causation. The main research questions were related to determining whether students can identify probabilistic covariation in contrast to default deterministic relations and if they develop the probabilistic reasoning as more opportunities to explore are presented. The authors present the environment and the methodology of the research. The 16 students in total (4 kindergarteners, 4 second graders, 4 fourth graders, 4 sixth graders) participated in the research with tasks from areas of games, biology, mechanics, social. The authors provide detailed descriptions of the tasks from every subject. Then they present the methodology for the analysis of transcribed sessions and what phrases were used to identify deterministic / probabilistic thinking. The results demonstrate the initial deterministic tendencies and shift towards the probabilistic reasoning. The data was analyzed in several layers, namely, students’ grade, task domain, scaffolding, number of opportunities to explore. It was concluded that in future the research should be carried out with a larger number of students and with probabilistic tasks embedded in the complex systems.

Relevance for Complex Systems Knowledge
Developing of causal probabilistic skills is important in analyzing complex systems and identifying patterns of interaction between different parts of the complex system. In this article, the authors provide a description on how students of various age (kindergarteners, second, fourth, sixth graders) identified probabilistic and deterministic patterns while performing tasks in games, biology, social behavior, mechanical. It is also stated that ability to determine the causal relationships partially depend on whether students have similar experience or previous knowledge in the field of interest. In addition, the research showed that students develop ability to reason by providing similar examples, analogies or arguments based on their knowledge.

Point of Strength
The strength of this article is the description of the research how students of different age (kindergarteners, second, fourth, sixth graders) can define causal probabilistic relationships between the different parts of the system.