DOI
DOI: 10.1002/sres.2132

Summary
The paper presents a conceptualization of conflicts based on a Complex Systems approach, rejecting the traditional linear models. According to the author, the 5 key elements that make conflicts analyzable as complex systems are:
- Boundaries definition, “systemic closure to simplify the inquiry and isolate the problem events or processes from their general systemic context”
- State and active variables, the first defining the “structural aspects of the conflict”, the latter describing the activities that can be performed.
- Causal loops and feedbacks, which are typical of complex systems and are at the basis of the difficulty to devise the right actions to bring a conflict to solution.
- Multiple interconnected subsystems, as in conflict multiple actors and dynamics are involved.
- Delays, which can be of two type: material delays or information delays. The first refers to the flows of material object, the second about the transfer of knowledge.
Starting from these features, the author derived two macro properties of conflicts (emergent properties, overshooting and collapse) and three main challenges involved when conceiving and constructing a model able to describe “real-life conflicts”:
- The evolutionary nature of conflicts;
- The elusiveness of quantification;
- The personal involvement of those who seek to analyze conflict.
The article proposes a strong case for a more pervasive adoption of complex systems modelling, making use of several examples (2003 Iraq War, the Israel-Palestine conflict, etc.).

Relevance for Complex Systems Knowledge
The paper is quite relevant for complex systems knowledge as it provides several examples of conflict models and concepts making use of complex systems thinking and dynamics. Moreover, the article provides its own contribution to the debate over the adoption of qualitative or quantitative methods in the analysis of conflict. Given the numerous difficulties involved in quantifying the variables of conflict, the author promotes the use of qualitative and mixed methods, providing further examples of successful models.

Point of Strength
- The article provides several examples of models of conflict based on the complex systems approach;
- It expands the number of variables needed when analyzing conflict, providing new insights that go beyond the traditional “linear models”;
- It shows pros and cons of adopting complex systems thinking to conflicts modeling.