DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12680

Summary
This study is concerned with the intervention and dynamics of complex and sustainable peace systems. There has been a call for a more holistic or systemic approach to peace and development and this article demonstrates how two methods derived from complexity science, causal loop diagramming and mathematical modelling. Coleman et al begin the article by discussing the geopolitical instability and its increasing complexity, volatility, and unpredictability. They make reference to the 2017 Positive Peace report and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals as valuable influences for incorporating ‘interdisciplinary complex systems dynamics’. The article then describes two tools in aiming to contribute to a more holistic approach sustainable peace




Tool 1: mapping multiple causality of complex peace systems.

Here, the authors describe the benefits of using causal loop diagramming (CLD). This visualisation method can help experts, policymakers and stakeholders to form systems thinking processes, facilitate dialogue, generate new question and organise knowledge in a more integrated way. A causal loop diagram is available in figure 1. The authors recommend the benefits of introducing this method in a 3 day workshop.




Tool 2: mathematical modelling of the causal loop diagrams

The research team working on this project translated conceptual models of peaceful societies into mathematical equations. These equations were then applied to one ‘gatekeeper’ variable – they developed a computer simulation to represent the effects of proposed decisions related to the causal loop diagram. The simulation is represented in figure 2.




Coleman et al then describe the challenges if complexity informed policy making for peace and conclude with the following policy implications:

Incorporate ideas and methods from complexity science into peace policy making.
Actively foster partnerships between policy makers, analysis, and academics.
Sponsor and support foundational research
Bolster an analytical community of practice to share knowledge, tools, and build the evidence base.

Relevance for Complex Systems Knowledge
This study is relevant to the community development topic. Although, this article is focussed on the global community and sustainable peace. It could also be perceived as relevant to the sustainable development topic seeing as resonates with SDG 16 – peace and justice.

The paper mentions various authors/methods the implore deeper systems-based approaches: agent-based modelling (Clarke, 2018), scenario analysis (Lehr et al., 2017), network analysis (Bankes, 2002; Moffat, 2003), and problem structuring (Feder, 2002; Ritchey, 2006). The use of causal loop diagrams is inherently relevant to complex systems knowledge and here, Coleman et al provide a useful visual example (figure 1.). Their development of simulation specifically designed to react to decisions could be useful for the teaching of systems thinking and decision making at HEIs.

Point of Strength
Causal loop diagram is not a new method of represented a complex system, however, the mathematical simulation could be a useful resource for further investigation. The program was still under development during this study but it may be useful look further into this or a similar program. The simulation could be utilised as a learning tool.