DOI
doi: 10.1080/09537320802292826.

Summary
This paper deals with the supporting and development of the renewable energy technology of biofuels and uses a TIS approach to assess and compare the successes of the technology development in Sweden with the Netherlands. Hillman et al. analyse whether entrepreneurs and government have accurately adopted the seven key system functions required for the diffusion of biofuel technology. They find that the Swedish TIS has exceeded the level that of Dutch TIS.

The study answers three questions:

What patterns of cumulative causation occurred in the two causation.
What caused the patterns to emerge or collapse?
3. What lessons may we draw for policy makers and entrepreneurs?




In the Netherlands

Initially economic returns and other issues posed a problem for agricultural uptake of biofuels.
Increased regulation and awareness of water quality issues drove the discussion on biofuel development for commercial ships.
A small niche market for biofuels was developed from private boating companies – they lobbied for tax exemptions and received which acted as further incentive for adoption.
However, first generation biofuels (1G) were scrutinised for lack of efficiency and falling short of positive environmental returns – this sparked the development of 2G biofuels.
The GAVE programme 1999 as a response to the Kyoto protocol initiated multiple R&D projects in the Dutch setting.
The market drivers are identified and referenced against the functions of TIS ([F5], F[6] and so on). Some of these include: promotions to potential users, construction of small biofuel factories and again, tax exemptions were issued.

In Sweden

Methanol fuels were explored in Sweden in the 1970’s as a response to rising oil prices but interest faded as oil prices dropped again in the 1980’s
The Swedish Ethanol Development (SSEU) was instrumental to the development of 1G and 2G fuels.
A 1G pilot plant was developed in the 1980’s via government support.
A government bill in 1997 drove the further development of R&D in 2G fuels which prompted university research and a push on transport development (buses).
Concerns for air quality and growing environmental awareness set development further in motion.
Sweden’s entrance to the EU was coupled with tax exemptions on fuel development.
The prime minister pushed for a ‘green society’ which was followed by further large scale investment and environmental awareness.




The two states were compared and discussed on their multiple systems functions, the role of entrepreneurs, the reduction of long-term uncertainty, policy support at various levels and technological decisions and their implications.

The Swedish Biofuels Innovation Systems (BIS) benefited from multiple entrepreneurial ventures and saw a cumulative causation as a byproduct, resulting in better market development and social adoption of biofuels. The Dutch have experienced far less of these returns most likely as a result of a lack in exogenous factors to stimulate BIS.

Relevance for Complex Systems Knowledge
This paper deals with TIS knowledge and its relevance to a real world example of both success and shortcoming. Hillman et al. state that system functions can interact with one another and cause feedback loops whether positive or negative. An example being – if a research project develops a new finding (knowledge development), it may increases expectations among policy makers (guidance of search), which may, as a result, instigate the creation of a subsidy programme (resource mobilisation) and enhance even more research projects (knowledge development). This example demonstrates how a breakthrough can have a cascading effect of cumulative causation.

The paper identifies five factors that enhance or hinder the progressions of both Sweden and the Netherlands: (1) oil supply – instability of oil supply and price shocks,

(2) local water and air quality – worry about the quality of these resources, (3) EU agricultural policy – need for restructuring a struggling agricultural sector, (4) climate change – debate on the reduction of CO2 emissions and how biofuel could play a role and (5) technology features – diversity of technology available to ether state (first gen/second gen) and how this effected the development. EU and government policy play a role in the uptake of entrepreneurial opportunities as well as social acceptance/popularity as described in sections 4 and 5.

Point of Strength
The use of Bergek et al. is common throughout various TIS type publications and this study adds to that list by contributing an international comparison of successes and shortcomings and for this reason, provides a valuable resource for demonstrating the systems thinking required by nations.

Table 1. provides a useful summary of each of the seven functions.




The case of the Netherlands and Sweden were described in their successes and shortcomings with useful references to the functions of TIS’s as the text was written e.g ‘New markets were however sought for economic reasons [F1]’. This would be extremely useful if someone was required to review specific TIS functions.  




The significance of EU and governmental policy has had a clear effect on the development of biofuel and is well documented in both cases of the Netherlands and Sweden.