DOI
10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.11.028

Summary
This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agentbased) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model.

Relevance for Complex Systems Knowledge
This article is motivated by the need to understand and incorporate human elements (e.g. perceptions, decisions, and actions) into decision making and modelling in complex socio-ecological systems. A key challenge for addressing these needs is bridging the gap between capturing the highly qualitative, subjective and rich nature of people's thinking and translating it into formal quantitative data to be used in decision support tools. The contribution of this paper is to present a step-wise methodology for bringing in the perception of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving learning and communication about decision making in complex systems.

1. Interviews are conducted with the stakeholders

2. Individual cognitive map - either during the interview or based at interview transcripts. The maps can then be validated by the respondents.

3. Collective map - merging individual maps to form a unifying view around core concepts

4. conceptual decision models -  based on the collective map

5. An agent based model - which is a simulation based on the maps and the decision model.This makes it possible to check different scenarios.

Point of Strength
This article could be useful for courses at an advanced level. Grasping it requires a foundational knowledge about systems. I t would be most useful at a stage where students are preparing for their research design.