DOI
10.1177/1356389020980493

Summary
Theory of Change diagrams are commonly used within evaluation. Due to their popularity and flexibility, Theories of Change can vary greatly, from the nuanced and nested, through to simplified and linear. We present a methodology for building genuinely holistic, complexity-appropriate, system-based Theory of Change diagrams, using Participatory Systems Mapping as a starting point. Participatory System Maps provide a general-purpose resource that can be used in many ways; however, knowing how to turn their complex view of a system into something actionable for evaluation purposes is difficult. The methodology outlined in this article gives this starting point and plots a path through from systems mapping to a Theory of Change evaluators can use. It allows evaluators to develop practical Theories of Change that take into account feedbacks, wider context and potential negative or unexpected outcomes. We use the example of the energy trilemma map presented elsewhere in this special issue to demonstrate.

Relevance for Complex Systems Knowledge
The article first discusses the use of Theories of Change, ToC, then considers how systems mapping could help address criticisms, and then describes and reflects on the process we used to create a systembased ToC map using systems mapping. ToC was developed to help evaluators address the challenges of working on complex programmes in complex settings. Drawing a participative ToC is seen as a useful way to bring together stakeholders involved in the design and delivery of an intervention to articulate its rationale and key steps in its delivery . ToC diagrams are often criticised as being too inflexible and linear, not fully representing the complexity of the program or project under investigation. ToCs have also been criticised for not giving sufficient attention to the wider context in which the intervention is taking place, and the nature of the interactions between the intervention and this wider context. The TOC doiagram can be seen as tool for participatory discussion s about the problem at hand and how to best design an intervention. It can also be seen as a tool for communicating the intentions of the interventiions. ANd it can be seen as a tool for the design of an evaluation. These three uses may not be compatible with each other, the first and the last need to deal with the complexity while communication sometimes require simplifications.  The article e propose that the explicitly whole-systems approach of Participatory Systems Mapping can do much to help overcome the critiques of ToCs discussed above.

Participatory systems mapping brings stakeholders together in a participatory exercise related to a specific policy or program area. The task is to map the components of a system and how they are causally interlinked. This article presents a specific method for developing a casual model or map by a set of stakeholders in an inclusive and participatory fashion. The emphasis is onindividual system factors and their connections that allows cyclic maps to be generated. I combines network anaolysis and subjective information as opposed to quantifying.

The map is made up of ‘factors’ (represented as nodes on the map) and their causal connections. Factors can represent anything as long as they are expressed as variables (i.e. they can go up and down, but they do not have to be directly measurable or already have data associated with them). Connections represent causal relationships where changes in one factor can influence the next positively, negatively, unclear or complex (depending other factors). The maps produced are intersubjective objects, in that they reflect the beliefs of the group of people that built them.

The authors  argues that recasting a participatory systems map into a ToC mapmakes the ToC better. It is a process involving many steps to get a ToC that is specificenough without getting to detailed.

Point of Strength
The article provides both a theoretical underpinning to Participatory systems mapping for TOC and a detailed step by step guide. Could inspire a supervised  classroom exercise.